Labour confounds expectations with Hamilton by-election victory

Let's start with the basics - victory in the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election is a good result for Scottish Labour.

Their position in the polls has slipped considerably since last year's general election and they've often found themselves on the defensive when it comes to controversial UK Labour policies, such as cuts to winter fuel payments.

Despite all that, they've taken the Holyrood seat from the SNP.

This result will be a massive boost to party activists, politicians, and leader Anas Sarwar.

Even after the polls closed the SNP seemed quietly confident of victory.

Their leader, John Swinney, had claimed that only his party could beat Reform in this particular seat.

But Labour confounded expectations somewhat. Their newest MSP, Davy Russell, is off to Holyrood.

He'd faced criticism for avoiding some interviews during the campaign, but party insiders insist that his local popularity is what allowed them to squeeze a victory.

All that being said, there are some caveats to this result.

Labour won a Westminster by-election in this area less than two years ago with a majority of about 9,500.

And in the 2024 General Election they won the corresponding House of Commons seat by a similar margin.

This time they squeaked through on a thin margin of about 600 votes. Their position does seem to have slipped - and the Scotland-wide polls would back this up.

Also, this is a Scottish Parliament seat. The SNP have been in government in Edinburgh since 2007, and by-elections can often prove difficult for the party that's in power.

But, at least in the immediate aftermath of this result, Labour are unlikely to let those factors take anything away from their win.

However, it's not just first and second place which merit some analysis.

Reform UK, who finished third with about 7,000 votes, weren't actually that far behind first place Labour.

This contest turned out to be a tight three-horse race.

The new-ish party was hoping for second. They've fallen slightly short of that, but will still be fairly happy with their performance.

This was the first electoral contest in Scotland that they've put the full might of their party machine into. Reform leader Nigel Farage even made a campaign visit.

They've made it clear that they are likely to be real competitors in next year's Holyrood election.

But there was a sense that voters in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse were scunnered with the status quo.

It wasn't unusual to hear them complain about the cost of living, the state of the health service, or the condition of the High Street.

Both the SNP and Labour would have to take some responsibility for those problems due to their respective positions of power at Holyrood and Westminster.

And yet Reform couldn't quite beat either of them in what was quite a fertile environment for a party promising to shake things up.

There are plenty of seats across the central belt of Scotland that will be electorally similar to Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse. So there may well be more SNP/Labour/Reform fights to come when Scots go to the polls next year.

Reform are still a relatively unknown quantity in Scotland, and their swift rise to prominence is a factor that could make that election fairly unpredictable.

But what about the performance of the Conservatives?

Back in 2021, they took third in this seat with around 18% of the vote.

Last night they narrowly held onto their deposit with 6%.

It's likely that the introduction of Reform – another party of the right – is eating into their vote. That could prove disastrous for them come the 2026 Holyrood election.

Something needs to change quickly for the Scottish Conservatives, or they could face significant losses next year.

It will be Labour activists who are waking up happy this morning – perhaps to better news than many of them expected.

But they threw the kitchen sink at this seat, with over 200 activists on the ground on polling day - and that only delivered a narrow victory.

Regardless, a win's a win. And those sort of triumphs are even sweeter when they surprise many of the pundits and pollsters.

Plenty could change over the next 11 months as we head towards a Scottish election.

And if this by-election is anything to go by, the victor in many seats may get a bit harder to predict.

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