Busy hurricane season expected as forecasters fear Trump cuts

Today's 2025 Atlantic season outlook covers the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, called the Gulf of America by the Trump administration.

In total NOAA expects between 13 and 19 named tropical storms. Of these, between six and 10 could become hurricanes, including three to five major ones – meaning they reach category three or above (111mph or 178km/h).

That's not as many as last year's very active season, which saw 18 tropical storms including 11 hurricanes of which five were major hurricanes.

But it's more than the long-term average of 14 named tropical storms a year, of which seven are usually hurricanes, with three major ones among them.

Climate change is not expected to increase the number of these storms globally. But a warming planet is thought to increase the chances of them reaching the highest wind speeds, bringing heavier rainfall and a higher likelihood of coastal flooding.

This year's above average forecast is expected for two main reasons.

Firstly, sea surface temperatures are above average across most of the tropical Atlantic, although they are not as extreme as this time last year.

Warmer seas provide the fuel source for hurricane growth as they track westwards across the Atlantic.

Secondly, the natural weather pattern known as El Niño – which makes it harder for Atlantic hurricanes to develop - is not expected this year, according to NOAA.

Neutral or weak La Niña conditions – which favour Atlantic hurricanes - are considered more likely, though this early on it is difficult to say.

Other conditions have to be right for hurricanes to develop, and those aren't possible to predict months in advance.

Localised air movements and even the amount of dust in the atmosphere can play important roles in shaping whether these storms develop or not.

"We can't really predict all that stuff this far out," said Phil Klotzbach, research scientist at Colorado State University, which has also predicted an above-average season.

Hurricane forecasts have generally become more accurate over time, but there are fears that these cuts could put that progress at risk.

"Less data means a worse forecast," warned Matt Lanza, a Houston-based meteorologist.

"I'm especially concerned about hurricane season because a lot of the steering mechanisms that direct hurricanes are governed by what's happening thousands of feet up," he added.

"And if we're not collecting data in important places, then I think that risks your hurricane forecast suffering."

It's difficult to say whether this will become apparent this year – a lot will depend on exactly where and when hurricanes hit.

But it also has potential implications for weather forecasting further afield in the world, which the Trump administration argues has become too reliant on the US.

"You need good information on the state of the atmosphere and the oceans from the whole world to make weather forecasts for any given location on Earth," warned Dr Swain.

"The impacts [of cuts to NOAA] are most concentrated in the United States, but will eventually cascade beyond the US should they continue at their current level or further expand."

In a press conference, NOAA acting administrator Laura Grimm said that NOAA had the best scientists and continued to make advances in forecasting, and remained committed to protecting the public.

Additional reporting by Phil Leake