Chris Mason: What can Starmer do in a world buffeted by Trump?

As if the economic picture in the UK wasn't shaky already, it has now got shakier still.

The cost of living is continuing to bite for many and people will worry about the prospect of recession.

It is the last thing the government could do with. It is the last thing millions of families could do with.

New polling for More In Common suggests two-thirds of people in the UK are worried about America's tariffs, with just over half fearing it will make cost-of-living pressures even greater.

And nearly twice as many people in the UK would support the government retaliating with its own tariffs on America as those who oppose the idea.

The government is maintaining its reluctance to do this, while keeping the option open.

The prime minister has said that the world has "fundamentally changed", which poses the question of whether he and his government are willing to fundamentally change their outlook and policies.

Firstly, that promise not to put up income tax, VAT or National Insurance.

National Insurance paid by employers has gone up but, responding to a question from GB News, Sir Keir Starmer repeated his promise not to put it up for employees or raise income tax or VAT between now and the next general election.

And what, asked Sky News, about his self-imposed restrictions on government borrowing, known as his fiscal rules?

My eyebrows weren't the only ones that were raised a little when, while addressing reporters' questions at the Jaguar Land Rover factory in Solihull in the West Midlands on Monday, he swerved a direct answer on whether he might loosen those rules.

But moments after the event finished, his team insisted they were "iron clad", as one senior figure put it.

This would mean, if the economy does take a hit from the tariffs, that everything else being equal, budgets for government departments will be tighter than currently anticipated.

For now, the prime minister and senior ministers are doing what plenty of governments around the world are doing: scrambling to work out how to respond and hitting the phones to ask each other just that.

Ministers are fast-forwarding announcements originally planned for their Industrial Strategy due in the summer, such as that loosening of the rules over the phasing out of petrol and diesel-only cars.

There is plenty of talk about the "intensity" of negotiations with Washington over a free trade deal but also an acknowledgement privately that they have little idea what President Donald Trump might do next.

That is far from a lonely ignorance, but no less discombobulating.

And expect more public talk than there was about, for instance, a free trade deal with India – an idea long in discussion, perhaps now more important to both countries.

"There is a renewed urgency to get trade deals, and a real possibility of getting this one over the line," one government figure told me.

There is little doubt the government is leaning into this moment of turbulence – perhaps it has little option? The question is how much difference it can make, as it is buffeted and the world is buffeted by Donald Trump.

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