Crowdsourced voter fraud claims flood social media before US election

Rumours, misleading allegations and outright lies about voting and fraud are flooding online spaces in unprecedented numbers in advance of the US election.

Hundreds of incidents involving purported voting irregularities are being collected and spread by individuals, as well as both independent and Republican-affiliated groups. A small number of posts are also coming from Democrats.

The whirlwind of claims spreading online poses a challenge to election officials who are having to debunk rumours and reassure voters, while preparing to administer election day on Tuesday.

In nearly every case, the posts support the Trump campaign’s false claim that the former president won the 2020 election and suggestions that he will potentially be cheated out of victory again on 5 November.

When asked whether he will accept the 2024 election result, Donald Trump said during the presidential debate in September that he would if it was a "fair and legal and good election".

A majority of Americans - 70% - expect him to reject the result if he loses, according to a CNN/SSRS poll released Monday.

Just this week, Trump himself claimed widespread fraud in a key swing state.

“Pennsylvania is cheating, and getting caught, at large scale levels rarely seen before,” Trump posted on his Truth Social network. “REPORT CHEATING TO AUTHORITIES. Law Enforcement must act, NOW!”

The allegation followed officials in three Pennsylvania counties saying they were working with local law enforcement to investigate some voter registration applications for potential fraud.

While Trump and allies seized on the announcements, the state's top election official, Republican Al Schmidt, has urged caution and warned voters to be aware of "half-truths" and disinformation circulating on social media.

“This is a sign that the built-in safeguards in our voter registration process are working,” he said.

Experts worry the burst of misinformation just before election day could undermine people's trust in the results - or lead to threats and violence in the lead-up to the election and beyond.

It's happened before.

In the hours and days that followed the 2020 presidential election, while votes were still being counted, then-President Trump turned to social media to allege fraud and falsely claim that he was the real winner of the election. "Stop the steal" became a slogan of his supporters' movement to overturn the results.

On social media, chatrooms and during street protests, conspiracy theorists alleged widespread voter fraud, culminating with a riot at the US Capitol on 6 January 2021.

Meanwhile, in battleground states like Georgia, election officials - civil servants whose job it is to oversee the election - faced death threats.

While false claims about voting ramped up after the 2020 vote, groups that monitor this kind of activity say this year it has started well before election day.

Wendy Via, founder of the Global Project Against Hate and Extremism (GPAHE), said some far-right and right-wing activists “are preparing themselves for the election to be stolen in a way they weren’t in 2020”.

“We cannot overstate the role of conspiracy theories in all of this,” she said.

These doubts have already reached Trump supporters on the ground. At a rally this week in Wisconsin, another key swing state, a number of people said they believed only illegal activity would prevent the Republican nominee from winning.

“I feel very confident about Trump, as long as there’s no cheating,” said Brad Miller of Green Bay, who mentioned that he’d already heard rumours about fraud. “Our only hope is that it’s not big enough to change the result.”

After the 2020 election, dozens of court cases alleging election fraud were lodged by Trump's team across multiple states, but none succeeded.

Experts say that isolated incidents of ballot fraud and administrative errors always happen in US presidential elections, which run across all 50 states and in 2020 involved more than 150 million voters.

But real incidents are now being catalogued and shared online to an unprecedented degree and being used, alongside fake posts, as evidence of widespread cheating.

In southern California, dozens of ballots were found in a storm drain. Despite the unknown circumstances around the event, online partisans immediately suspected deliberate fraud.

“They WILL cheat,” says one of the thousands of comments posted.

As cases have cropped up in recent days - including those in Pennsylvania and a Chinese student being charged with illegally voting in Michigan - authorities have repeatedly pointed to their investigations as examples of the robustness of election safeguards.

But those who believe conspiracy theories about widespread fraud see these incidents as evidence of a co-ordinated plan by Democrats to “rig” the election.

“Look at this new cheat voter fraud,” read one typical comment responding to the news from Pennsylvania. “Dems already doing their best to steal another election.”

The overall effect can have a disastrous impact on trust in democracy, experts say.

“These incidents are catnip for those who seek to undermine confidence in the election result,” said Luis Lozada, chief executive of Democracy Works, a not-for-profit group that distributes information about voting.