India already has 1.45 billion people. Why does it want more children?

Last year, India nudged past China to become the world's most populous country, according to UN estimates.

With nearly 1.45 billion people now, you'd think the country would be quiet about having more children. But guess what? The chatter has suddenly picked up.

Leaders of two southern states – Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu – have recently advocated more children.

Andhra Pradesh is mulling providing incentives, citing low fertility rates and ageing population. The state also scrapped its "two-child policy" for local body elections, and reports say neighbouring Telangana may soon do the same. Next-door Tamil Nadu is also making similar, more exaggerated, noises.

India's fertility rate has fallen substantially - from 5.7 births per woman in 1950 to the current rate of two.

Fertility rates have fallen below the replacement level of two births per woman in 17 of the 29 states and territories. (A replacement level is one at which new births are sufficient to maintain a stable population.)

The five southern Indian states lead India's demographic transition, achieving replacement-level fertility well ahead of others. Kerala reached the milestone in 1988, Tamil Nadu in 1993, and the rest by the mid-2000s.

"As a demographer, I don't think states should be overly concerned about these issues. They can be resolved through constructive negotiations between federal and state governments," says Mr Goli. "My concern lies elsewhere."

The key challenge, according to demographers, is India's rapid ageing driven by declining fertility rates. While countries like France and Sweden took 120 and 80 years respectively to double their aging population from 7% to 14%, India is expected to reach this milestone in just 28 years, says Mr Goli.

This accelerated ageing is tied to India's unique success in fertility decline. In most countries, improved living standards, education, and urbanisation naturally lower fertility as child survival improves.

But in India, fertility rates fell rapidly despite modest socio-economic progress, thanks to aggressive family welfare programmes that promoted small families through targets, incentives, and disincentives.

The unintended consequence? Take Andhra Pradesh, for instance. Its fertility rate is 1.5, on par with Sweden, but its per capita income is 28 times lower, says Mr Goli. With mounting debt and limited resources, can states like these support higher pensions or social security for a rapidly aging population?

Consider this. More than 40% of elderly Indians (60+ years) belong to the poorest wealth quintile - the bottom 20% of a population in terms of wealth distribution, according to United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA)'s latest India Ageing Report.

In other words, Mr Goli says, "India is getting old before getting rich".

Fewer children also mean a rising old-age dependency ratio, leaving fewer caregivers for an expanding elderly demographic. Demographers warn that India's healthcare, community centres and old-age homes are unprepared for this shift.

"Smaller numbers of people will enter the reproductive - and main working - ages, and this will be socially, politically and economically disastrous. This is a demographic process and it is extremely difficult to reverse," says Mr Dyson.

This is already happening in some countries.

In May, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol declared the country's record-low birth rate a "national emergency" and announced plans for a dedicated government ministry. Greece's fertility rate has plummeted to 1.3, half of what it was in 1950, sparking warnings from Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis about an "existential" population threat.

But demographers say that urging people to have more children is futile. "Considering the societal shifts, including the significant reduction in gender disparities as women's lives have become increasingly similar to those of men, this trend is unlikely to reverse," says Mr Dyson.

WATCH: Why do some in India want couples to have more children?

For Indian states like Tamil Nadu and Kerala, grappling with a declining workforce, the key question is: who will step in to fill the gap? Developed countries, unable to reverse declining fertility, are focusing on healthy and active ageing - prolonging working life by five to seven years and enhancing productivity in older populations.

Demographers say India will need to extend retirement ages meaningfully, and policies must prioritise increasing healthy years through better health screenings, and stronger social security to ensure an active and productive older population - a potential "silver dividend".

India must also leverage its demographic dividend better - economic growth that occurs when a country has a large, working-age population. Mr Goli believes there's a window of opportunity until 2047 to boost the economy, create jobs for the working-age population, and allocate resources for the ageing. "We're only reaping 15-20% of the dividend - we can do much better," he says.

The headline of this piece was updated to better reflect the story.