Russian ships move from Syria base amid doubts over future

"Everything possible is now being done to get in touch with those involved in ensuring security and, of course, our military is also taking all the necessary precautions," he told reporters in Moscow.

He previously warned that it was "premature" to speculate on the bases' future.

"You know that, of course, we maintain contacts with those who control the situation in Syria now. This is necessary because we have our bases there and our diplomatic office [embassy]. And of course, ensuring the safety and security of our facilities are of utmost importance," he told reporters.

The Tartous naval facility houses elements of the Black Sea Fleet and is Russia's only repair and replenishment hub in the Mediterranean. Established by the Soviet Union in the 1970s, it was expanded and modernised by Russia in 2012 as the Kremlin began to increase its support for President Assad's regime.

It allows Russian vessels to remain in the Mediterranean without having to return to ports in the Black Sea via the Turkish Straits. It is also a deep-water port, meaning it can host submarines from Moscow's nuclear fleet, according to the US Naval Institute.

The new satellite images show Moscow has at least temporarily brought its ships out of the port, with two guided missile frigates moored about 13km (eight miles) off the Syrian coast. It is unclear where the remainder of the fleet - pictured in earlier images - currently is.

It is also unclear whether their departure is part of a permanent withdrawal from Tartous. In recent weeks, satellite images have repeatedly shown naval vessels coming and going from the port.

Mike Plunkett from the open-source defence intelligence analysts at Janes organisation noted that the Russian movements appeared to have been "conducted to ensure that their ships are not vulnerable to attack".

"Whether they are worried about attack from the Syrian rebels or collateral damage from any Israeli strike on Syrian assets in Tartus is unknown," he added.

Dara Massicot, an analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said on X on Sunday that an evacuation of the airbase would involve a massive airlift requiring far more jets than those visible in the satellite images, suggesting that Moscow does not plan to evacuate imminently.

"When Russian forces deployed to Syria in 2015, they flew almost 300 sorties in two weeks, and that was before base expansion," she wrote on X.

"A change signifying a major evacuation will be clear," she added.

Despite the current holding pattern Russian forces appear to be displaying, the fall of the Assad regime represents a major blow to the Kremlin's ambitions in the region. During a 2017 visit to Khmeimim air base, President Vladimir Putin made clear that he intended for Moscow's presence to be a long-term project.

Reflecting on the situation, an influential pro-Kremlin military blogger Rybar warned on Telegram that Russia's power-projection exercise in the region was in serious danger.

"Russia's military presence in the Middle East region is hanging by a thread," he concluded.

Additional reporting by Paul Cusiac. Graphics by Mark Edwards.