Key questions behind Fifa's Saudi World Cup decision

Official confirmation of a Saudi World Cup will come at a 'virtual' meeting of Fifa's Congress on Wednesday afternoon.

But this has seemed like a formality for more than a year. In October 2023, it emerged the Saudi bid would be unopposed after Australia - the only other potential candidate - decided not to enter the running, hinting that it was futile to do so after being given less than a month by Fifa to mount a challenge.

Fifa has defended a fast-tracked process that many argue was lacking in transparency and accountability. But critics believe it effectively paved the way for the Saudis, by decreeing that the 2030 World Cup would be staged across three continents (Spain, Portugal and Morocco are co-hosts, with the first three matches in South America). That meant that under its rotation policy, only bids from Asia and Oceania were considered for 2034.

It is worth noting that Saudi Arabia and Fifa, under president Gianni Infantino, have developed a close relationship. The country hosted Fifa's 2023 Club World Cup, and the governing body has a lucrative sponsorship deal with Saudi state-owned oil giant Aramco.

There has also been widespread speculation that Saudi's Public Investment Fund (PIF) could make a major investment in streaming giant DAZN which has agreed to broadcast the inaugural edition of Infantino's pet project - an expanded Club World Cup next summer.

The sense of inevitability surrounding Saudi's bid was only reinforced last month with the late-night publication of Fifa's evaluation report, authored by Infantino's deputy, Secretary General Mattias Grafstrom. It awarded the bid an average score of 4.2 out of 5, the highest ever.

No media conference was held in order to explain such a glowing assessment, nor the fact that the bid was deemed 'medium risk' for human rights and 'low-risk' for environmental protection, sparking outrage from campaigners.

Furthermore, with ratification expected to be confirmed by acclamation at the Congress, rather than a traditional vote, the only way any dissenting national associations can express their opposition is to abstain from the round of applause.

While the precise protocol remains unclear, there are suggestions that associations are to be asked to simultaneously show their support for both the unopposed Spain, Portugal and Morocco 2030 bid and the Saudi 2034 bid (rather than having two separate acclamations).

Fifa meanwhile can argue that anointing hosts via uncontested bids is preferable to the past, when long races between various countries could be vulnerable to vote-swapping and attempted corruption, and that as a global body they have a duty to take their flagship event to new territories.

"Extraordinary", according to the Saudi Football Federation. Its bid proposes 15 stadiums, (including three that are under construction, and eight where work is yet to start), across five host cities, including one (the futuristic development of Neom) that is yet to be built.

Fifa's evaluation report hails "a range of impressive stadiums which, when built or refurbished, could offer state-of-the-art infrastructure".

It is also almost certain to be held in winter. But there could be one major difference with neighbouring Qatar's tournament, which took place in November-December, 2022.

Noting that summer temperatures "can exceed 40C", Fifa has said there is an "elevated risk in terms of event timing" for Saudi 2034, and referenced having to navigate "climatic conditions" and "religious events", leading to speculation the event may be held from the start of January to avoid a clash with Ramadan.

Premier League and other top European leagues would oppose a winter World Cup according to the PA news agency.

For many, ratification of a Saudi World Cup would be the ultimate expression of the power the country now wields across sports, and the opportunity, disruption and controversy that have accompanied it.

The kingdom has invested billions of pounds staging events since 2021, when the country's de-facto ruler the Crown Prince made it a key part of his 'Vision 2030' strategy to modernise and diversify the economy. The kingdom has since hosted Formula 1, football's Spanish and Italian cup finals, the Club World Cup, and top-level boxing, golf, horse-racing and tennis.

The country's Public Investment Fund has also launched the breakaway LIV golf series, taken control of four Saudi Pro League clubs and purchased Newcastle United.

Meanwhile a recent report by Danish organisation Play the Game has revealed that Saudi Arabia has signed more than 900 sponsorship deals and made dozens of formalised agreements with football federations as it extends its influence across the sports landscape.

But staging a World Cup will take Saudi's sporting revolution to an entirely different level, and perhaps even pave the way for an Olympic bid in the future.

Many believe that while Qatar delivered a secure and memorable World Cup enjoyed by many fans, the years of controversy that overshadowed the tournament over human rights, discriminatory laws, and the major disruption to the football calendar caused by a first winter World Cup could now be repeated.

Back in 2010, Qatar's shock victory in the vote to decide the 2022 hosts took Fifa's then-leadership by surprise. In contrast, Infantino appears to have been supportive of the idea of a Saudi World Cup. And with Fifa having brought in a human rights policy in 2017, there could be even more scrutiny on its decision - and any evidence that it leads to workers being adversely impacted.

As with Qatar, the Saudi World Cup infrastructure will be largely built by migrant workers from South Asia, with more than 13 million foreigners living in the country, and the scale of construction required has inevitably led to concerns.

Fifa's own report has concluded that "a number of severe human rights impacts did ultimately occur in Qatar from 2010 through 2022 for a number of workers connected to the World Cup. This included: deaths, injuries and illnesses; wages not being paid for months on end; and significant debt… a credible argument can be made that Fifa contributed to some of the impacts".

The media scrutiny that accompanied the build-up to Qatar's World Cup may have led to labour reforms that were brought in, although campaigners have raised concerns over implementation, and are furious that Fifa has not acted on the key recommendation of its own report and paid financial compensation to workers who were harmed.

Last year, Prince Abdulaziz assured me there would be no repeat of Qatar's issues with workers' rights, saying: "We have 10 years to work on that, we already started in a lot of the venues, so we have a long time to do it in the right process."

However, in its Saudi evaluation report, Fifa references "areas where further legal reforms are needed and… effective enforcement, without which the risk of indecent working conditions could be elevated".

Fifa hails the Saudi government's "commitment to respecting, protecting and fulfilling internationally recognised human rights in connection with the competition including in the areas of safety and security, labour rights, rights of children, gender equality and non-discrimination, as well as freedom of expression (including press freedom)".

But with regard to diversity and anti-discrimination, its report also "notes gaps and reservations in the implementation of relevant international standards". Despite that, Fifa claimed "a good potential that the tournament could serve as a catalyst for some of the ongoing and future reforms and contribute to positive human rights outcomes".

Amnesty said the assessment was: "An astonishing whitewash of the country's atrocious human rights record. Fundamental human rights reforms are urgently required in Saudi Arabia, or the 2034 World Cup will be inevitably tarnished by exploitation, discrimination and repression." Campaign group Fair Square said Fifa had "plumbed new depths".

Campaigners have long accused the world's biggest oil exporter of adding to climate change through its fossil-fuel industry, and of blocking climate action.

But now they have also expressed major concerns about the impact of staging a 48-team tournament, pointing to the energy required for cooling systems, the desalination of water and carbon-intensive infrastructure projects.

The Saudi government says it is diversifying away from fossil fuels and trying to reduce omissions, and has rejected criticism it is using sport to distract from its record on sustainability.

Fifa's World Cup evaluation report said "Whilst the extent of construction would have a material environmental impact, the bid provides a good foundation for delivering mitigation measures to address some of the environment-related challenges."

Fifa's credibility in this area was badly undermined last year when a Swiss regulator ruled it had made false statements about the reduced environmental impact of Qatar 2022 having claimed it would be the first "fully carbon-neutral World Cup".

Furthermore, while Qatar constructed seven new stadiums, Saudi Arabia is building 11 and refurbishing a further four. A total of 64 matches were played in Qatar but Saudi 2034 would feature 104, so the environmental impact could be greater.

A Saudi World Cup underlines the extraordinary shift in sporting power towards the Middle East.

Up until relatively recently, the idea of tiny Qatar and neighbouring Saudi Arabia hosting World Cups within the space of just 12 years would have been inconceivable to many. But given these countries' wealth, and sports bodies' desire for financial growth and new markets, that will now happen.

Saudi Arabia can point out that it will be far from the only controversial host of a sporting mega-event in recent years. In the past two decades, Russia has hosted both the World Cup and Olympics. China has hosted both the summer and Winter Olympics.

Same-sex relationships are also illegal in 2030 World Cup co-hosts Morocco, as they are in Qatar. And environmental campaigners have expressed dismay at the staging of the 2030 World Cup across three continents.

Others however, fear that the applause Saudi's bid receives on Wednesday will represent a devastating defeat for sport's commitment to human rights and sustainability, and a low-point for those in charge of world football.

The Saudi authorities and Fifa now have the next decade to try to convince the doubters the country can be a suitable host, and that the sport's flagship event is not tainted.