Young people are getting a 'raw deal', and that's good news for the Greens and Reform

"If I was a politician I'd be going, 'Oh blimey, there is a demographic time bomb'. There are now people of voting age - well into their 30s - who just have not had a good deal, and they have started to vote with their feet."

Whether it's paying for a decent place to live, struggling with student debt, or finding a suitable job, one leader in the youth sector warns the government needs to urgently deal with the profound problems affecting young people.

And the most acute? The fact that around a million are not working, not studying, and not being trained for anything - being described by that ugly acronym, Neet (not in education, employment or training).

It is not a new problem. I've heard countless ministers over many years promise to take big, bold action, to sort out what many see as the dreadful waste of opportunity.

But with the numbers of Neets rising, and the political conversation around welfare raging, perhaps the political risk is building too.

Recent polling displays strong showings for Reform and the Greens among under 30s.

An average of four polls carried out this autumn for the research group, More in Common - which polled around 2,000 people each time - show Zack Polanski's Green party the most popular with young women.

The polls show Nigel Farage's party and the Greens are tying on 20% with young men - behind Labour's 30%. But Reform is leading the pack among young men who don't have degrees.

Luke Tryl from More in Common says with all the pressure "it's little wonder these young people are giving up on mainstream politics, and instead turning to parties that promise to burn it all down and start again like Reform and the Greens".

"Mainstream parties would be naive to assume that these voters will simply return when they get older," he adds.

Does the government get the problem? Well, one minister, Josh Simons, made his thoughts clear this week in frank language.

Writing on X, Simons said that life could be "shit" in the UK because of economic insecurity and the cost of having kids in your 20s, 30s, and 40s.

I don't think the Work and Pensions Secretary Pat McFadden will be that blunt when he joins us in the studio tomorrow to talk about tackling the rising numbers of young people who aren't working.

But one cabinet minister admits, "it is true young people get a raw deal – and youth unemployment is the number one issue - not just for that generation but for their parents and grandparents".

The statistics are grim. There were 946,000 young people not working or studying between July and September this year, that's more than one in 10 of all 16-24-year-olds.

They're more likely to be young men than young women, and rates are higher in the North East and East of England. More than half have a health condition, and around one in five has a mental health condition.

There are lots of reasons why a young person might end up being "economically inactive", to use the jargon.

The cost of education has risen, so it might be a less tempting option. The economy has been more or less flat for years, so the labour market isn't exactly hungry for young workers. The pandemic had a profound effect too.

Unemployment in general is going up, and tax changes and increases in the minimum wage have made it more expensive for businesses to take on workers, which many fear hits young people's prospects hardest.

Levels of ill health and mental health problems have been rising too.

Separately, after an interview with us earlier this year when the health secretary said he thought mental health problems were over-diagnosed, Wes Streeting now suggests he'd been too quick to judge.

He has now called for a formal review of the evidence to see whether over-diagnosis is a real issue. But the number of young people saying health is holding them back from work has ballooned.

Trying to improve the prospects for young people struggling to find their place in society is only one aspect of tackling the gaps between generations.

Whether it's the cost of housing, childcare, student debt, disaffection and frustration among all kinds of younger voters is widespread.

The nature of work has become more insecure too, particularly for people starting out, with 16-24-year-olds nearly six times more likely to be on a zero-hours contract.

Given the party's historic belief in the welfare state it is not easy for Labour politicians to say this out loud, but sometimes, as one minister admits privately, "if you can get more money by claiming you are sick, it is logical to do so".

The benefits system is incredibly complicated, but it can throw up perverse incentives not to look for work.

Although the government had to back down from changes to some benefits in the face of angry backbenchers, the former Work and Pensions Secretary, Liz Kendall, did introduce the idea of "right to try", where people can try out a job, without the fear of losing their income, and having to reapply for benefits if it doesn't work out.

Ministers are reluctant to fuel an ugly conversation about who is "deserving" in society.

One government source says: "The left have a very paternalistic view that people on welfare can't look after themselves, the right thinks those people will never make anything of themselves. We have to reject both of those views."

But with the costs of welfare spiralling, and the sheer number of young people not gainfully employed or learning, there is a political, financial, and perhaps even moral pressure on the government to act.

The former minister, Alan Milburn, has been asked to try to get to the bottom of what is really going on. His review will be published next year. But in the next few months the government will introduce the Youth Guarantee, which will give young people who haven't had a job or been studying for 18 months guaranteed paid work.

Pat McFadden will reveal more of the details of where and when it will start when we speak to him tomorrow.

Will the plans match the scale of the problem? One minister worries that government is not willing to be radical enough, telling me, "We don't look like we are interested in ripping up the system that doesn't work for young people".

Trying to improve the prospects for young people struggling to find their place in society is only one aspect of tackling the gaps between generations.

A youth charity boss suggests: "It's like a guilty secret, the country knows that young people are getting a raw deal but nobody is doing anything about it."

Ministers would deny that claim, but there is an apparent political danger for those who choose not to confront it - and perhaps an opportunity for politicians who do.

Lead image: PA Media